1Q 2019 URA / HDB Real Estate Statistics
Renewing interest among buyers and investors, with a 16.3% increase for 1Q 2019 Private new home sales, outperforming 1Q 201.The public housing market maintains stability, with 8.5% increase in volume of resale transactions as compared to 1Q 2018.
Private New Home Sales Volume
There was a total of 1,838 private new homes sold for the first quarter of 2019. This was a 16.3% surge in the number of units sold as compared to the first quarter of 2018.
Mr. Ismail mentioned that “On the heels of the property cooling measures, buyers and investors have started to develop more confidence in entering the market. Our analysis shows that, based on the URA’s monthly developer sales for the first 3 months of the year, 70% of the new sales were made up of projects that have been previously launched. Developments that have been priced sensitively have continued to garner interests among buyers and investors.”
Mr.Ismail predicts that the new sale segment will likely achieve a total of 9,000 units sold in 2019.
Private Resale Volume
There was a total of 1,858 number of private resale transactions in the first quarter of 2019. This was a -5.7% (Q-o-Q) decline as compared to the 4th quarter of 2018, which recorded 1,971 private resale transaction. Comparing with the first quarter of 2018, which had 3,666 private resale transactions, this was an -49.3% (y-o-y) decrease.
Mr. Ismail mentioned that “Traditionally, the first quarter of the year is a subdued period. With the resale market reeling from the cooling measures, sellers might be pulling on the brakes and buyers are potentially holding off the decision of buying. However, we can expect the private resale market to be revitalized in the next 3 quarters, as it will be stimulated by en-bloc owners who are receiving their sale proceeds and are looking for replacement homes that allows for immediate occupation.”
For the resale segment, Mr. Ismail predicts that, it will be 10,000 units in 2019.
Private Home Prices
Private home prices in Singapore eased by -0.7 in the first quarter of 2019, compared with the 0.1% dip in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Mr. Ismail highlighted that “In the wake of the property cooling measures, observing the trend of the past three quarters, we can see that the prices of private properties have shown resilience. As there have been a minimal drop of less than 1% in the previous quarters. With the resale owners holding on to their prices and developers having previously committed to high land bid prices, we can expect the private property price index to continue to hold for the remaining quarters, hovering between - 2% to +1% for the rest of the year.”
For the entire year of 2019, we are anticipating that the total overall private residential transactions (new sales, resale and sub-sales) will potentially be 19,000 transactions.
There was a total of 4,835 number of HDB resale transactions in the first quarter of 2019. This was a 14.2% (Q-o-Q) decline as compared to the 4th quarter of 2018, which recorded 5,637 HDB resale transactions. Comparing with the first quarter of 2018, which had 4,458 HDB resale transaction, this was an 8.5% (y-o-y) increase in the number of HDB resale transactions. The HDB resale flat prices dipped by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2019. The HDB resale price index reached 131.0, a drop from 131.4 in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Mr. Ismail stated that “The public housing market has maintained its resiliency, as it has remained relatively stable, with marginal drop in prices. Traditionally, the first quarter of the year undergoes a lull period. However, we can expect demand to be invigorated in the next 3 quarters of 2019. This can be attributed to the estimated 30,000 HDB flats (comprising HDB and DBSS flats) reaching MOP this year and coupled with the lesser number of BTO flats, with only 15,000 flats offered this year. Furthermore, without the cash over value (COV), HDB resale flats will continue to serve as a desirable option to be a matrimonial home for newly-wed couples."
In conclusion, Mr. Ismail anticipates that the HDB resale transaction volume can expect to reach around 24,000 to 25,000 in 2019. While, in terms of prices, Mr. Ismail foresees that, HDB resale price index will experience a - 1 to + 2% growth for the year.