October 01, 2021
01 October 2021, SINGAPORE – The prices of private homes and HDB resale flats continued to climb in Q3 2021 according to the flash estimates released today. The healthy sales volumes – in particular, the HDB resale market and private landed homes – have helped to support prices during the quarter. The resiliency in prices is as expected with the strong demand for resale and new homes.
The flash estimate from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed that overall private home prices rose for the sixth consecutive quarter in Q3 2021, rising by 0.9% QOQ – a slight pickup from the 0.8% growth in Q2 2021. On a year-on-year basis, the overall home prices grew by 7.3% in Q3 2021.
The price increase last quarter was led by the landed home segment, where prices moved up by 2.5% QOQ, a bounce back from the contraction of -0.3% in the previous quarter. In the third quarter of 2021, a number of record-beating sales of Good Class Bungalows (GCBs) as well as increasing demand for landed homes helped to pushed up overall landed home values.
Meanwhile, the non-landed private homes saw values inch up by a mere 0.5% QOQ, the slowest QOQ growth posted since the recovery in the later part of 2020. Within the non-landed homes segment, prices in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) booked the steepest QOQ increase among the sub-markets, growing by 2.2%. This is followed by the Core Central Region (CCR) and the Outside Central Region (OCR) which shrunk by -0.6% and -0.2% respectively.
With a PPI reading of 165 points in Q3 2021, the overall private home prices have reached a new peak. In the first nine months of 2021, private home prices have risen by 5.1%.
“The conservative growth of 0.9% QOQ for overall private home prices in the third quarter of 2021 will bring greater assurance to buyers and investors, that the market is not overheated and dispels concerns of the government introducing any cooling measures in the near term.
In the third quarter of 2021, we witnessed a revival of the suburban new home sale market – owing to a few major OCR launches namely, Pasir Ris 8, as well as rising land bids from recent GLS tender activities – all of which triggered home-buyers to enter the market to purchase new homes. The exuberant buying activity on top of the depleting inventory of existing project launches in the OCR had resulted in a spill over effect to other RCR project launches and resale homes in the outlying areas.
The increased portion of OCR home sales during the quarter may have exerted some drag on the basket of prices. Based on caveats lodged up to 21 September, 56% of private homes sold (both new home sales and resales) during the 3rd quarter of 2021, were OCR homes. In comparison to the 2nd quarter and 1st quarter of 2021, where OCR homes comprised of only 46% and 42% of total home sales.
In addition, during the third quarter of 2021, the CCR home sale market was quieter owing to the lack of new launches in the central region, which may have led to a softening of prices during the quarter. Nonetheless, despite the minor setbacks in certain segments of the private home sale market, prices on the whole are on an upward trend owing to the recovering economy as well as rising land prices.
Given that there are no major new launches in the later part of September 2021, we do not anticipate the final PPI figures (to be released on 22nd October) to vary widely from the flash estimate. Going by the flash estimate, private home prices have risen by 5.1% in the first nine months of 2021. For the entire year of 2021, we project that overall private home values could grow by 6% to 7%.”
The flash estimate released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) showed that resale prices of public housing flats rose by 2.7% QOQ in Q3 2021. With an index reading of 150.4 in Q3 2021, the HDB resale price index has now surpassed the recent peak in Q2 2013 which had an index reading of 149.4.
“The long waiting times of new Build-to-Order flats and construction delays have helped to drive up HDB resale prices higher in recent quarters. The 2.7% increase achieved in Q3 2021 is a remarkable continuation from the previous quarter’s growth. On a year-on-year basis, HDB resale prices have risen by 12.3% in Q3 2021 - which is the highest YOY growth since Q3 2011.
More than 7,800 resale flats were estimated to have been sold in Q3 2021, based on HDB resale transaction data up till 29 September. More buyers including new families and young couples continue to flock to the resale market – disheartened by the uncertainties of BTO completion timings as well as the news of the defaulting of Greatearth Construction, a main contractor engaged by HDB for several BTO projects. Many buyers have become increasingly cautious over whether to apply for a BTO amid troubles plaguing the construction industry.
Q3 2021’s sales volume is amongst the highest sales volume achieved in a quarter for the past 10 years. The last time the HDB resale volume surpassed the 8,000-unit mark was in Q3 2010, where over 8,200 units were sold. We may continue to see this trend of 7,000 to 8,000 resale units being sold in the next few quarters. While HDB is stepping up to increase BTO flat supply, more might be required in order to address homebuyers’ concerns over construction delays.
Besides the growing demand for resale flats, there were more million-dollar HDB resale flats recorded in the third quarter of 2021. 67 flats were transacted above the $1 million mark in Q3 2021 compared to 53 million-dollar-deals in the previous quarter. This takes the total number of million-dollar-deals in 2021 to an all-time high at 173 deals.
Strong demand for resale flats will likely continue to support HDB resale prices for the rest of the year till 2022. In the first nine months of 2021, HDB resale prices have climbed by about 8.9% and we expect HDB resale values to grow by 11% to 12% for the whole of 2021. As HDB resale prices continue to trend up, more flat owners may be motivated to sell their flat and recycle the capital to upgrade to a new home such as another larger resale flat or private property”
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