After several years of intense rental spikes leading up to 2023, Singapore's rental market is entering a new phase. By March 2026, rental growth has largely stabilised across both public and private housing segments.

Condo (Blue) vs HDB (Red) - Rental

While rents remain elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels, the frantic bidding wars that once characterised the market have faded. Listings are taking slightly longer to secure tenants, and negotiations are becoming more balanced.

This shift is not accidental. Two structural forces are converging at the same time:

1. A significant potential increase in rental supply as a large cohort of HDB flats reaches their 5-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP), even though reaching MOP does not automatically mean owners will rent out their units.

2. Moderating rental demand following tighter foreign workforce policies and rising work pass salary thresholds.

Together, these forces are gradually reshaping the rental landscape. What was once clearly a landlord-dominated market is evolving into a more balanced - and in some areas increasingly tenant-friendly - environment.

One of the most significant structural developments in 2026 is the arrival of a large group of relatively new HDB flats reaching their MOP.

Approximately 13,500 flats are expected to fulfil their 5-year MOP in 2026, nearly double the roughly 7,000 units that reached MOP in 2025. Reaching MOP simply means owners are allowed to sell or rent out the entire unit - it does not necessarily mean all of them will enter the resale or rental market.

For the rental market, this matters because many owners of newly MOP-ed flats typically explore one of three options:

• Renting out spare rooms

• Leasing the entire flat after moving to another home

• Selling and temporarily renting while planning their next move

All three scenarios add potential rental supply into the system.

Where the competition will be strongest

Several estates will see particularly large inflows of newly eligible flats.

These developments are relatively new, well?maintained, and often close to MRT lines or key amenities. As a result, they become strong rental competitors not only against older HDB flats, but also against mass?market private condominiums within the same districts.

Pricing implications

When newer flats enter the rental pool, they tend to set natural pricing benchmarks within the neighbourhood.

Older flats and nearby private properties may face increasing pressure to:

• Adjust rents more competitively

• Offer longer lease flexibility

• Improve furnishings or condition

In effect, the MOP wave introduces additional choice for tenants, which historically tends to soften rental growth.

At the same time supply is increasing, demand growth is also becoming more measured.

Recent policy adjustments under Budget 2026 continue the gradual tightening of Singapore's foreign workforce framework.

Updated salary thresholds

Employment Pass (EP)
Minimum qualifying salary rising to $6,000, and $6,600 for those in financial services.

S Pass
Minimum qualifying salary increasing to $3,600, and $4,000 for financial services.

These adjustments do not necessarily reduce the expatriate workforce immediately. However, they can influence hiring decisions and the pace of workforce expansion.

The rental market impact

Mid-tier expatriates and professionals typically form a large portion of tenants in:

• HDB rental flats

• RCR condominiums

• City-fringe rental clusters

When hiring thresholds rise, companies may become more selective in hiring or restructuring compensation packages, which can moderate the growth of this tenant pool.

More importantly, tenant behaviour itself appears to be shifting.

Instead of accepting steep rental renewals, tenants are increasingly entering what some agents describe as a "cautious enquiry phase."

They're:

• Comparing more listings before committing

• Negotiating more assertively

• Willing to relocate if rental increases are excessive

This behavioural change is just as important as the policy change itself.

As the market transitions, tenants may find themselves with more negotiating leverage than they had during the peak rental surge years.

The narrowing CCR-RCR gap

One interesting development is that the rental gap between Core Central Region (CCR) properties and Rest of Central Region (RCR) units has narrowed to roughly 8%.

When the price difference between city-centre and city-fringe living becomes marginal, tenants may start considering location upgrades for similar monthly costs.

This creates new decision dynamics within the rental market.

Using the 2026 supply data

Tenants negotiating renewals can increasingly rely on data-driven comparisons.

For example, in the eastern region, tenants may reference the 2,000+ flats reaching MOP around Tampines North developments when negotiating rents with landlords of older units. While not all of these flats will necessarily enter the rental market, the larger pool of newly eligible units can still influence expectations around pricing.

The logic is straightforward: when more housing options become available or potentially available, tenants often gain slightly stronger negotiating leverage.

The mortgage buffer for landlords

At the same time, declining interest rates are creating some breathing room for landlords.

Mortgage rates in certain packages have eased to around 1.4%-1.5%, lowering financing pressure for some property owners. However, the outlook for interest rates remains uncertain. Ongoing geopolitical tensions - including the conflict involving Iran, which has pushed oil prices above US$100 per barrel (about S$135) - have raised concerns about renewed inflation pressures that could delay or even reverse the pace of interest rate cuts. If energy prices remain elevated, central banks may choose to hold rates higher for longer.

For those looking to better understand how these shifts are already playing out on the ground - particularly in the HDB segment - events such as the Consumer Empowerment Seminar (CES) provide a useful platform to gain clarity from market experts. For instance, the upcoming session, "HDB Market Update 2026: What the Latest Data is Telling Us", focuses on the latest transaction trends, pricing movements, and supply dynamics, helping buyers and homeowners interpret what the current data really signals for their next move.

This flexibility can make landlords more open to moderate rental adjustments rather than risking prolonged vacancies.

The rental market in 2026 is not collapsing - but it is clearly rebalancing.

The combination of:

• A large MOP supply wave

• Moderating expatriate demand growth

• And evolving tenant expectations

is gradually shifting the dynamics away from the landlord-dominated conditions seen just a few years ago.

For landlords

The priority now is tenant retention and property quality.

Securing a reliable tenant at 5% below peak rent may prove more financially prudent than leaving a unit vacant for several months while searching for a higher offer.

In a more competitive environment, well-maintained homes with fair pricing will stand out.

For tenants

For tenants, the evolving market may open up greater choice and negotiating room, particularly in districts where new MOP flats are entering the rental pool.

As Singapore's housing market continues to evolve, staying informed about policy shifts, supply trends, and tenant behaviour will be critical for both landlords and renters.

Data-driven insights and careful positioning will ultimately determine who navigates the next phase of the rental cycle most successfully.