For most Singaporeans, an HDB flat has always been the go-to first home. It's affordable (with various grants and subsidies that make it even more accessible), familiar, and often the foundation of their long-term housing journey.

These flats are meant first and foremost to be homes. But because they are also the biggest asset many Singaporeans own, it is understandable that people think about resale value, retirement and future upgrading plans.

Buy a flat, build equity, sell later, upgrade or right-size. That's the common mindset nowadays.

But as time goes on, we are seeing signs that HDB flats may not deliver the same level of resale upside that many homeowners enjoyed in the last cycle. So does this mean we should all abandon HDB and start looking at private properties? Of course, it's not that simple...

HDB resale gains typically depend on a few things lining up nicely: subsidised entry prices, strong resale demand, limited supply, and buyers who are willing to pay more because they cannot wait for a BTO.

But as more flats enter the resale market and BTO supply becomes more stable, that scarcity premium may start to fade.

In 2026, HDB reported that resale prices fell for two consecutive quarters, with the Resale Price Index dipping 0.1% in Q1 before falling another 0.3% in Q2. Resale volume also softened, with 6,268 transactions recorded in Q2 2026 up to 29 June, 10.2% lower than the same period last year.

At the same time, supply is on the rise.

HDB said it was on track to launch about 102,300 BTO flats from 2021 to 2025, exceeding its earlier commitment of 100,000 flats. For 2026, HDB planned to launch about 19,600 BTO flats across three exercises, including more than 4,000 Shorter Waiting Time flats. HDB has also said it is prepared to offer more than 55,000 flats from 2025 to 2027 if needed. And to top it all off, about 13,480 flats are expected to reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026.

This is good news for buyers. More supply means more choices, shorter queues and less pressure to chase resale units at any price. But for sellers, it means the resale market may become less forgiving.

HDB has one big advantage: lower entry price. A subsidised BTO flat gives eligible buyers a chance to enter the property market at a much lower cost than private property. That is also why past percentage gains can look attractive, especially when the timing is favourable, like during the post Covid-19 recovery period.

Private property has a different advantage: There's no MOP so you don't have to wait as long if you want to sell, though Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) will be payable if you do that within four years. The private market also attracts more buyers beyond citizens and Permanent Resident (PR) owner-occupiers. From upgraders to foreign investors, this broader buyer pool can significantly support demand, especially for well-located projects.

But private property is also facing more supply.

URA's Q2 2026 flash estimate showed the overall private residential price index rising by 0.5% from Q1 2026, slower than the 0.9% increase in the previous quarter. The government also said the 2026 Confirmed List supply under the Government Land Sales programme amounted to 9,320 private residential units, more than 50% above the past 10-year average. Around 61,000 private residential units, including executive condominiums, were expected to be completed over the next few years.

So if private property is not immune to supply pressure either, what's the difference?

The government has been very clear about one thing: public housing must remain affordable. So they try to prevent HDB resale prices from running too far ahead of incomes. On the other hand, Private property, while still regulated, operates more as a market-driven asset class.

But before we assume private property automatically wins, let's look at what actually happened over the last few years.

Source: PropNex Investment Suite

Based on resale price trends from recent years, it's clear that both HDB and condo resale prices have moved up. But if you take a closer look, you'll see that HDB's growth was rather stagnant in the past year or so.

Yes, HDB did have a strong post-Covid recovery, In fact, based on percentage growth alone, HDB resale prices outperformed condos over this period. That sounds impressive, and to be fair, it is. Many owners who entered before the surge would have seen very healthy gains. The concern is the fact that prices have not moved much since Q2 2025.

This means that future buyers need to be a bit more careful, or at least adjust their expectations. Buying into HDB now after prices have already climbed sharply may yield very different results compared to buying before the pandemic.

Condos, on the other hand, recorded a lower percentage gain, but the trend looks more consistent. Prices continued moving upwards instead of flattening out. And we should also remember quantum. Because condo prices start from a much higher base, even a smaller percentage increase can translate into a much larger dollar gain.

A 15% gain on a $600,000 flat sounds "better" than a 10% gain on a $1.5 million condo, but in dollar terms, the condo owner makes $150,000 while the flat owner makes only $90,000.

That said, higher quantum also means higher commitment. A private property may offer a larger dollar upside, but it also requires stronger holding power, more upfront capital, and greater tolerance for interest-rate and market-cycle risks. The point is not that private property is automatically better, but that buyers should compare assets based on life stage, affordability, exit flexibility and long-term value, not just percentage gain.

The realistic answer is: yes, but not at the same pace as before.

It's not that HDB is no longer a good property asset. It is that HDB's strongest growth may already be behind us, especially since the next phase is likely to be shaped by even more BTO launches, more MOP flats, and a stronger policy push to keep public housing affordable.

This isn't a bad thing. It means the government is committed to ensure people can afford housing. All this just means homeowners should be more realistic about future profits.

Ultimately, the question is not whether HDB can still "make money". For many Singaporeans, HDB will remain the most practical and sensible starting point. It's affordable, stable, and supported by public housing policy.

The bigger question is whether it should be treated as the end point of one's property journey. If the goal is simply to own a home, HDB may be enough. But if the goal is long-term retirement planning, asset progression, or building stronger future options, then homeowners need to assess whether their current flat still has enough runway in terms of value, lease, demand and exit potential.

HDB flats will probably continue to play a major role in Singaporeans' wealth story. What may change is the assumption that every flat will deliver easy gains simply because the last cycle did. The next generation of homeowners will need to be more selective, more realistic, and more deliberate about how each property decision supports the life they want later.