2024 年第一季私宅价格连续第三个季度增长，组屋转售价格因稳健需求和坚挺成交价而走强

26 April 2024, Singapore – Private residential property prices climbed for the third straight quarter in Q1 2024, while the HDB resale prices gained strength, following healthy demand and firm transacted prices of resale flats. In Q1 2024, the growth in HDB resale prices has outpaced that of private homes.

Q1 2024 URA Private Residential Property Index  

Data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed that overall private home prices climbed by 1.4% QOQ in Q1 2024, marking the third consecutive quarterly increase following the 0.8% QOQ growth in Q3 2023, and the 2.8% QOQ increase in Q4 2023 (see Table 1). The final print of 1.4% is marginally down from the 1.5% QOQ increase reflected in the flash estimates. 
 

The moderation in price growth from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 is likely due to the relatively muted transaction volume during the quarter, amid the seasonal lull and the Lunar New Year festivities. Developers sold 1,164 new private homes (ex. EC) in Q1 2024 – up by 6.6% from the 1,092 new homes (ex. EC) shifted in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, developers’ sales were down by 7.3% from the 1,256 new private residential units sold in Q1 2023. The 1,164 new homes sold is the slowest sales for a first quarter since 762 units were transacted in Q1 2008.  
 

Table 1: URA Private Property Price Index

Source: PropNex Research, URA

Over in the resale market, 2,689 private homes changed hands in Q1 2024, reflecting a 5% QOQ fall from 2,831 homes resold in the previous quarter, and up by 2.6% YOY from the 2,622 units resold in Q1 2023. Meanwhile, the proportion of sub-sales dipped from 9.5% in Q4 2023 to 8.9% of the total transactions in Q1 2024.

The landed homes segment led the price increase in Q1 2024, with a 2.6% QOQ growth. This could be attributed to the slight uptick in the landed home sales volume from 330 transactions in Q4 2023 to 359 transactions in Q1 2024, as per URA Realis caveat data. The increase in sales volume was observed in the semi-detached and terrace homes segments, while transactions of detached homes dipped marginally from Q4 to Q1.

Meanwhile, the prices of non-landed private homes climbed by 1.0% QOQ in Q1 2024, following the 2.3% QOQ increase in the previous quarter. Home prices rose across the three sub-markets, with the Core Central Region (CCR) posting the steepest increase at 3.4% QOQ in Q1 2024, building on the 3.9% QOQ growth in the previous quarter. The growth came on the back of transactions at new projects 19 Nassim and Watten House, as well as sales at Cuscaden Reserve, which was relaunched in mid-March. In Q1 2024, the top non-landed home transactions in the CCR were the resale of two units at The Ritz-Carlton Residences Singapore Cairnhill which fetched $16.5 million ($5,397 psf) each. 
 

In the Rest of Central Region (RCR), non-landed home prices ticked up by 0.3% QOQ in Q1 2024, overturning the 0.8% QOQ decline in Q4 2023. The launch of freehold project The Arcady at Boon Keng, which sold 50 units at an average price of $2,575 psf based on caveats lodged in Q1, and transactions at projects including Pinetree Hill and The Landmark likely contributed to the slight rebound in home prices in the RCR. 
 

Non-landed private home prices also inched up in the Outside Central Region (OCR), climbing by 0.2% QOQ in Q1 2024 – slowing from the 4.5% QOQ price increase in the previous quarter, where the transactions at J’den had helped to boost OCR prices then. Several OCR new launches have helped to lift prices in the sub-market in Q1: Lentor Mansion sold 408 units at an average price of $2,278 psf; Hillhaven moved 79 units at an average price of $2,070 psf; and Lentoria shifted 60 units at an average price of $2,126 psf. Previously launched projects in Lentor estate – Lentor Hills Residences, Hillock Green, and Lentor Modern – also posted slightly higher average unit prices for transacted units from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024, based on URA Realis caveat data.
 

In Q1 2024, developers launched 1,304 new private homes and 512 new EC units for sale, compared with 1,060 private homes (ex. EC) in the previous quarter. No new EC project was launched in Q4 2023.  The URA said that there were 19,936 uncompleted unsold private homes (ex. EC) as at the end of Q1 2024, representing an increase of 17.8% from 16,929 units in the previous quarter.
 

Private home rental market

The private residential leasing market continued to moderate in Q1 2024, with the URA rental index dipping by 1.9% QOQ, following the 2.1% QOQ decline in the previous quarter. This is the second straight quarter of rental decline from the peak in Q3 2023, and after 12 quarters of rental growth from Q4 2020. Despite the decline in Q1, rentals are still above the levels seen prior to the pandemic. 
 

Based on URA Realis data, there were 19,680 private non-landed and landed private home leasing transactions in Q1 2024 – up by about 3.3% from 19,038 rental contracts in Q4 2023. However, the leasing volume of private homes was down by 2% YOY from 20,084 leasing deals in Q1 2023. 
 

In 2023, the bumper crop of new private home completions at 19,968 units (ex. EC) has weighed on the rental market. In Q1 2024, the URA said that 241 units of private residential units were completed; another 8,404 units of private homes (ex. EC) are expected to be ready in the rest of 2024. With a steady stream of new completions narrowing the demand-supply gap in the home leasing market, rentals are expected to face some downward pressure.
 

Mr Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty:

“There is perhaps a lack of impetus for buyers to transact in the quarter, owing to the seasonal lull at the start of the year and Lunar New Year holidays, as well as the spilling over of the tepid buying sentiment and caution that have gripped the market in the later part of 2023. Although transaction volumes have been relatively muted in Q1 2024, private home prices have generally held up, supported by a number of new launches and resale transactions in the high-end segment.
 

We expect home sales to pick up in the second half of the year, where more launches could come on. They potentially include larger projects such as Sora in Yuan Ching Road with 440 units, a new project in Jalan Tembusu with an estimated 840 units, The Chuan Park with 916 units, and the mega mixed-use development in Tampines Avenue 11 that could yield about 1,190 unit, amongst others. Larger developments will offer a wider selection of units to buyers and we anticipate healthy interest for the upcoming launches this year, mainly from Singaporean first-timer home buyers, as the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) measure continues to stymie investment demand from foreigners.
 

In Q1 2024, foreigners (non-PR) made up 1.2% of the total new sale and resale non-landed private home transactions (ex. EC), based on URA Realis caveat data (see Table 2). This marks a dip from 1.7% in Q4 2023 and it is the lowest proportion of new and resale non-landed private homes purchased by foreigners on record since 1995. In absolute terms, there were 43 transactions to foreigners in Q1 2024: 22 from US buyers; five from China; three from Switzerland, two from Norway, and 11 unspecified entries, as the information is still unavailable. 
 

Amidst a pullback in foreign demand, the proportion of Singaporean buyers rose to 82.4% in Q1 2024 from 81.8% in the previous quarter, while Singapore PRs made up 16.4% of the transactions, on par with Q4 2023. With home sales going to be driven primarily by the local buyers, we think developers have been gradually adjusting to new market realities. This could have manifested in their more conservative bids for government land sales sites and pricing units at a more accessible price quantum, since local buyers tend to be more price sensitive compared with foreign investors. In Q1 2024, the median transacted price of new non-landed private homes (ex. EC) was $1.96 million – down from about $2.15 million in the previous quarter. 
 

Table 2: Non-landed new private home sales and non-landed private home resale (ex. EC) by nationality by residential status by Quarter

Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis

For the full year 2024, we expect private home prices to remain relatively resilient, possibly increasing by 4% to 5%, while developers’ sales may hover at around 7,000 to 7,500 units (ex. EC), and private resale volume could trend at 12,000 to 13,000 units.”
 

Q1 2024 HDB Resale Price Index  

Figures released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) showed that resale flat prices climbed by 1.8% QOQ in Q1 2024 – marginally higher than the 1.7% QOQ increase indicated in the flash estimates released earlier this month. It also rose at a faster clip from the 1.1% QOQ price growth in Q4 2023 (see Table 3). This marks the 16^th consecutive quarterly growth in the HDB Resale Price Index and the strongest price increase since the 2.3% QOQ growth in Q4 2022. 
 

The HDB said there were 7,068 HDB flats resold in Q1 2024 – up by 8% from 6,547 flats in Q4 2023, and 1.3% higher than the 6,979 units resold in Q1 2023. The resale volume in Q1 2024 is the highest quarterly sales figure in six quarters, since 7,546 units were transacted in Q3 2022.
 

Table 3: HDB Resale Price Index

Source: PropNex Research, HDB

Ms Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research and Content, PropNex Realty:

“The pick-up in HDB resale volume in Q1 2024 has helped to lift resale flat prices, with the HDB resale price index (HRPI) hitting yet another new peak. HDB resale prices, which started to recover in the second half of 2019 have staged a strong recovery helped by the healthy demand for resale flats during the pandemic. In fact, the growth in the HRPI has outpaced that of the URA private property index (URA PPI) since the start of the Covid19 pandemic in early 2020. From Q1 2020 to Q1 2024, the HRPI rose by 40% cumulatively, compared with the 34% cumulative increase in the URA PPI over the same period.      
 

In Q1 2024, the average resale price in both mature and non-mature towns rose on higher sales volume. The average price of resale flats in mature estate rose by 3.4% QOQ to about $633,500 while that of resale flats in non-mature towns grew by 1.6% QOQ to almost $565,600, according to transaction data. Several estates also achieved their respective record average resale price (since 1990) during the quarter, including non-mature towns Bukit Panjang, Choa Chu Kang, Jurong West, Punggol, Sengkang, Woodlands, and Yishun. 
 

By flat types, the increase in average resale price in Q1 2024 was led by executive flats, with a 1.8% QOQ increase to $854,230. This is followed by 3-room and 2-room resale flats which posted a 1.7% QOQ and 1.6% QOQ growth respectively during the quarter. Meanwhile, 4-room and 5-room resale flats saw their average resale price rise by 1.3% QOQ and 1.5% QOQ respectively in Q1 2024 (see Table 4).
 

Table 4: Average transacted HDB resale prices by flat type by quarter

Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg (table excludes multi-gen flats)

In Q1 2024, there were 185 flats resold for at least $1 million, marking the highest sales of such flats in a quarter, surpassing the 133 units transacted in Q4 2023. They accounted for more than 2.6% of the resale transactions in Q1 2024 – higher than the just over 2% proportion recorded in Q4 2023. The top five estates that posted the highest number of such flats sold in Q1 2024 were Toa Payoh with 26 units, followed by 22 units in Kallang Whampoa, 21 units in Bukit Merah, 20 units in Queenstown, and 19 units in Bishan.
 

Overall, we project that the demand for resale flats in 2024 should remain healthy, with the total resale volume possibly coming in at around 26,000 to 27,000 units. This will help to underpin HDB resale prices, which could rise by 5% to 6% for the whole of 2024. The gradual increase in HDB resale prices may provide opportunities for some aspiring HDB flat upgraders to consider selling their flat and recycling the proceeds to buy a private home, in the light of the moderation in private home prices.