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December 15, 2023

New Home Sales More Than Tripled In November On Strong Demand For Fresh Launches; Growth Seen Across All Segments

15 December 2023, SingaporeDevelopers’ sales more than tripled from October to November, as strong demand for fresh project launches supercharged new home sales following three months of muted transaction volumes. In November, 784 new private homes (ex. EC) were sold – surging by about 286% MOM from the 203 units shifted in the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, new home sales were up by about 202% from 260 units transacted in November 2022.

November’s sales tally is the highest in four months since 1,413 new units (ex. EC) were sold in July. Three new projects that were launched in the month – J’den, Hillock Green, and Watten House – collectively accounted for nearly 73% (570 units) of November’s sales. Taken together, developers sold 6,316 new private homes (ex. EC) in the first 11 months of the year. PropNex expects that 2023’s sales volume will not surpass the 7,099 new units (ex. EC) shifted in the whole of 2022.

 

Source: PropNex Research, URA

The Outside Central Region (OCR) led sales in November, thanks to the robust demand at J’den in Jurong East and the healthy take-up at Hillock Green, the latest project to be rolled out in the Lentor estate. This sub-market made up about 69% of the total monthly sales tally. Transactions shot up by more than seven times from 76 units in October to 539 units in November, with J’den and Hillock Green making up nearly 86% (or 461 units) of the month’s sales. J’den was the top performer in November (see Table 3), selling 329 units at a median price of $2,475 psf; it is now more than 89% sold and is the best-selling new launch in 2023. In addition, J’den has also set a new benchmark average price for non-landed OCR launches, tipping over the $2,400-psf level. Meanwhile, Hillock Green moved 132 units (28% of total units) at a median price of $2,110 psf. At 539 units, this is the strongest OCR sales in over a year, since 686 new units were transacted in September 2022.

The Core Central Region (CCR) also staged a strong rebound in sales in November. Developers sold 151 new units – up by about 236% MOM from 45 units in the previous month – and it is the highest CCR sales tally since 153 units were transacted in May 2023. As with the OCR, home sales in the CCR was boosted by a new project, being the 180-unit Watten House which sold 109 units (about 61% of total units) at a median price of $3,199 psf. The next best-selling CCR project in November was 19 Nassim which moved 5 units at a median price of $3,396 psf.

Over in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), developers sold 94 new private homes, rising by about 15% MOM from the 82 units sold in October. The most popular RCR projects in the month included Pinetree Hill and Grand Dunman which each sold 17 units at a median price of $2,446 psf and $2,567 psf respectively, as well as The Continuum which transacted 16 units at a median price of $2,791 psf. In the first 11 months of 2023, the RCR has shifted more than 2,970 units, higher than the 2,732 units in the entire 2022.

For the EC market, developers sold 16 new ECs in November, down from from 21 units sold in the previous month. North Gaia was the top-selling EC project in November, moving 9 units at a median price of $1,315

psf, followed by Altura which sold 4 units at a median price of $1,469 psf. Based on URA data, there are now just 299 unsold new EC units on the market, which should bode well for the upcoming Lumina Grand EC in Bukit Batok that is slated to be launched in January.

Developers placed a total of 970 new units (ex. EC) for sale in November – up sharply from the 54 units (ex. EC) released for sale in the previous month. J’den, Hillock Green, and Watten House made up about 97% of the units launched in November.

Please attribute the comments below to Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research & Content, PropNex Realty.

“The confidence-boosting sales take-up of new private homes in November has helped to lift market sentiment somewhat after a few months of weaker transactions from August to October. It is also particularly encouraging as the new projects that drove sales in November have had to contend with either ample new supply its vicinity (Hillock Green), or a unit-mix comprising larger and hence more expensive units (Watten House), as well as a benchmark average $PSF price for a new project in the OCR (J’den). In addition, there were also concerns about the extent to which the hike in additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) rates could impact sales, especially in the CCR. Despite the various challenges, all three new launches have achieved a positive outcome in our view - and have offered more optimism for upcoming launches in 2024.

The median transacted unit price in the OCR jumped by 12.7% MOM to $2,340 psf from October to November (see Table 1), as the transactions at J’den helped to prop up prices. This is the first time that the monthly median unit price of non-landed new homes sold in the OCR has crossed the $2,300-psf mark. We anticipate that non-landed OCR home prices in Q4 2023 will similarly get a lift as well. In the RCR, the median unit prices rose by 5.4% MOM to $2,551 psf, while the median price in the CCR dipped by 1.4% MOM to $3,195 psf.

Developers’ sales in December will certainly turn out lower than November’s volume as there are no fresh projects put on the market this month. In addition, sales also tend to be slower in December owing to the seasonal lull and school holidays where more people may be traveling. However, we expect 2024 to kick off brightly with several projects slated for launch in January. They comprise The Arcady @ Boon Keng and The Hillshore in the RCR, Hillhaven and Lentoria in the OCR, as well as Lumina Grand EC. Collectively, these projects can offer an estimated more than 830 private residential units and 512 new ECs.

Table 1: Median transacted unit price ($PSF) of new Non-landed private homes sold by Month

CCR

RCR

OCR

Jan-23

$2,884

$2,589

$2,083

Feb-23

$2,943

$2,688

$2,120

Mar-23

$2,920

$2,614

$2,065

Apr-23

$2,890

$2,461

$1,993

May-23

$2,919

$2,525

$2,154

Jun-23

$2,902

$2,615

$1,989

Jul-23

$2,902

$2,499

$2,087

Aug-23

$2,857

$2,610

$2,068

Sep-23

$3,112

$2,525

$2,068

Oct-23

$3,242

$2,420

$2,077

Nov-23

$3,195

$2,551

$2,340

Nov MOM % change

-1.4%

5.4%

12.7%

Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis (retrieved on 15 Dec 2023)

In terms of buyers’ profile, the proportion of non-landed new private home sales (ex. EC) to foreigners (non-PR) fell to 1.8% in November, compared with 6.6% in the previous month (see Table 2). In absolute terms, there were 14 transactions to foreigners (NPR) in November, relatively on par with the 13 caveats lodged in October. The proportion of non-landed private new home sales to Singaporean and Singapore PR buyers rose to 86.3% and 11.9% respectively in November – up from 84.7% to Singaporean buyers and 8.7% to Singapore PRs in the previous month. With the April 2023 ABSD rate hike keeping some foreign investors at bay, we expect local buyers to continue to account for the vast majority of private housing demand.

Table 2: Proportion of non-landed new private home sales (ex. EC) by nationality by residential status by month

Nationality by Residential Status

Nov-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Company

-

-

0.5%

-

0.5%

0.1%

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Foreigner (NPR)

19.1%

22.1%

14.6%

12.6%

8.9%

7.9%

3.0%

4.7%

1.3%

2.5%

5.4%

6.6%

1.8%

Singapore Permanent Residents (PR)

13.9%

11.7%

14.6%

17.3%

13.7%

9.7%

10.4%

12.1%

9.9%

16.5%

11.7%

8.7%

11.9%

Singaporean

67.0%

66.2%

70.3%

70.2%

77.0%

82.3%

86.6%

83.2%

88.8%

81.0%

82.9%

84.7%

86.3%

Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis (retrieved on 15 Dec 2023)

We anticipate that new private home sales (ex. EC) in the full-year 2023 could likely come in at around 6,500 to 7,000 units (ex. EC) – which would be the slowest annual developers’ sales since 4,264 new homes were sold in 2008.”

Table 3: Top 10 Best-Selling Private Residential Projects (Ex. EC) in November 2023

S/N

Project

Region

Units Sold in Nov 2023

Median Price in Nov 2023 ($PSF)

1

J'DEN

OCR

329

$2,475

2

HILLOCK GREEN

OCR

132

$2,110

3

WATTEN HOUSE

CCR

109

$3,199

4

PINETREE HILL

RCR

17

$2,446

 

GRAND DUNMAN

RCR

17

$2,567

5

THE CONTINUUM

RCR

16

$2,791

 

LENTOR HILLS RESIDENCES

OCR

16

$2,084

6

THE LAKEGARDEN RESIDENCES

OCR

15

$2,080

7

THE RESERVE RESIDENCES

RCR

13

$2,576

8

LENTOR MODERN

OCR

10

$2,088

 

THE MYST

OCR

10

$2,060

9

THE LANDMARK

RCR

9

$2,663

10

BLOSSOMS BY THE PARK

RCR

8

$2,438

Source: PropNex Research, URA            

 

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