01 April 2026, Singapore - Singapore's housing market in Q1 2026 continues to moderate with pockets of resilience. Flash estimates showed that private home prices rose modestly in the quarter, with non-landed homes in the Outside Central Region leading gains. Meanwhile, the HDB resale price index saw its first quarterly decline in nearly seven years in Q1 2026, notwithstanding an elevated number of million-dollar resale flats and new price records being set in the quarter.

Q1 2026 URA Private Residential Property Index (FLASH)

According to flash estimates, overall private home prices inched up by 0.3% QOQ in Q1 2026, easing from the 0.6% QOQ increase in the previous quarter (see Table 1). This is the slowest quarterly growth in six quarters. However, the final print could potentially come in higher when the sales transactions in the latter part of March are included. The flash estimates captured transactions up till mid-March with the final quarterly data set to be published on 24 April 2026.

Table 1: URA Private Property Price Index (PPI) - Flash Estimates Q1 2026

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The Landed homes segment saw a 1.8% QOQ price decline in Q1 2026, a turnaround from the 3.4% QOQ increase in Q4 2025. It is likely that the fall in transactions of landed homes has put a drag on price growth. Based on URA Realis caveat data, the number of landed homes sold in Q1 2026 (till 24 March) fell - across all segments, detached homes, semi-detached homes, and terrace houses - by about 28% QOQ to 416 units from 574 units in the previous quarter. It is observed that transactions weakened noticeably in March compared with the sales in January and February, potentially suggesting that the Middle East conflict (which began on 28 February) and the ensuing spike in uncertainty could have affected sentiment among prospective landed home buyers.

Over in the non-landed private homes segment, prices climbed by 1.0% QOQ, reversing the 0.2% QOQ decline in Q4 2025, as per the flash estimates. The price growth was driven by the Outside Central Region (OCR) which posted a 1.3% QOQ price increase - the strongest quarterly increase for this sub-market in five quarters. It is likely that the final print may trend slightly higher when the transactions at the recently launched Pinery Residences (see Table 2) are included.

Table 2: New project launches in Q1 2026 (ex. EC)

Meanwhile, the Rest of Central Region (RCR) which did not feature any fresh project launches in Q1 2026 garnered a 0.9% QOQ growth during the quarter, following the 0.7% QOQ rise in Q4 2025. Compared with other regions, the RCR sub-market is anticipated to see relatively fewer new launches this year with Hudson Place Residences, and the mega development in Bright Hill Drive, Thomson Reserve lined up.

Prices also rose in the Core Central Region (CCR) during the quarter, supported by two successful new launches Newport Residences and River Modern (see Table 2). The flash estimates indicated that non-landed home prices in the CCR inched up by 0.4% QOQ in Q1 2026, rebounding from the 3.5% QOQ decline in the previous quarter. This sub-market is expected to remain relatively lively in 2026 with more new projects slated to come on, including those in Dunearn Road and Holland Link.

Transactions

In Q1 2026 (till 22 March), developers sold an estimated 1,355 new homes (ex. EC) and 1,087 new EC units, based on URA developers' sales data and caveats lodged. In particular, new private home sales could reach closer to 2,000 units (ex. EC) when the transactions at Pinery Residences are added. Further, PropNex notes that this is the first time that new EC sales crossed the 1,000-unit mark in 13 quarters, since Q4 2022 where 1,127 EC units were sold - boosted by the launch of Copen Grand and Tenet then. In Q4 2025, developers sold 2,940 new private homes (ex. EC), and 80 new ECs.

Over in the resale market, there were 2,662 private homes resold in Q1 2026 (till 24 March) based on caveat lodged - likely to underperform the 3,529 private resale units that changed hands in Q4 2025. Meanwhile, there were 115 sub-sale transactions in the Q1 2026 (till 23 March), likely to post a fourth straight quarterly decline in sub-sales.

Mr Kelvin Fong, CEO of PropNex said:

"Private home sales in Q1 2026 reflected a measured but still a relatively well-supported market, underpinned by genuine buying demand. While the overall transaction volumes moderated from the previous quarter, we observe that demand has remained resilient for sensibly-priced projects in attractive locations. Homebuyers continue to show a preference for projects with strong transport connectivity and easy access to amenities.

The CCR remained a bright spot in Q1 2026, where projects such as River Modern and Newport Residences were well-received, driven predominantly by local buyers. Since the doubling of the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) rate for foreigners to 60% in April 2023, the proportion of such buyers in the CCR has generally declined (see Chart 1), with new home sales in the sub-market now heavily supported by the local market.

Chart 1: Proportion of new non-landed private home sales (ex. EC) in the CCR by Foreigners (NPR)

The growing participation of local buyers in the CCR could also be due to a shift in perceived relative value driven by the narrowing price gap between new CCR homes and those in the city-fringe. In Q1 2026 (till 22 March), the median unit price gap between new non-landed private homes in the CCR and RCR was 19%, widening from 4% in the previous quarter (see Table 3). That said, it is still narrower than levels seen in a good part of 2024 and some prospective buyers may still find it compelling enough.

Table 3: Median unit price ($PSF) of new private homes and new EC units sold and price gap (%)

Meanwhile, OCR demand held steady in Q1 2026, with transaction activity continuing to underpin home prices in the segment. There were two new mass market launches (ex. EC) in the OCR in Q1 2026, namely Narra Residences and Pinery Residences. We anticipate that the OCR may see further price upside in Q2 2026 with the upcoming launch of Vela Bay in Bayshore, Tengah Garden Residences, and potentially Lentor Gardens Residences - which could all see keen homebuying interest among owner-occupiers including HDB upgraders.

Elsewhere, the EC segment remained a standout performer, with robust demand from first-timer buyers and HDB upgraders. The two new EC projects launched in Q1 2026, Coastal Cabana and Rivelle Tampines booked brisk sales likely nudging EC sales beyond 1,000 units in the quarter. We note that EC prices having gradually risen over the years, due in part to higher land price and construction costs. In Q1 2026 (till 22 March), the median unit price gap between new non-landed OCR private homes (ex. EC) and new ECs was 20%.

There may be several reasons why EC demand continues to be healthy despite higher prices. They include: 1) EC units are still seen as a value-buy and an accessible entry into private housing; 2) Keen interest from HDB upgraders; 3) Limited and generally lumpy nature of EC supply; and 4) Anticipation of price upside in the future after privatisation. Eligible buyers may also view ECs as a strategic purchase, given their relative affordability, ability to meet private housing aspirations, and potential for future capital appreciation. The strong EC sales in Q1 2026 bode well for upcoming EC launches in Sembawang Road, Woodland Drive 17, and Senja Close.

Although the Middle East conflict has introduced near-term uncertainty, its impact on home sales may be tempered, as owner-occupiers typically take a longer-term view when making purchase decisions. However, the landed housing segment may see uneven market activity since buyers could be more cautious owing to the larger price tag of such homes. For now, financing conditions remain supportive with the 3-Month Compounded SORA (Singapore Overnight Rate Average) at about 1.071% p.a. as at 1 April 2026. That said, there is a risk that rates could climb if the Middle East conflict is protracted.

For 2026, PropNex projects that developers' sales may hover at around 9,000 units (ex. EC), while the private resale transaction volume could come in at about 14,000 to 15,000 units. Meanwhile, we expect overall private home prices may continue to grow moderately at 3% to 4% in 2026."

Q1 2026 HDB Resale Price Index (FLASH)

Flash estimates from the Housing and Development Board (HDB) showed that resale flat prices edged down marginally by 0.1% QOQ in Q1 2026 (see Table 4), after remaining unchanged in Q4 2025. This is the first quarterly decline in the HDB resale price index in nearly seven years, since the 0.2% quarterly drop in prices in Q2 2019. The final print will be released on 24 April 2026.

The HDB said there were 6,179 flats resold in Q1 2026 (till 30 March 2026). This is higher than the 5,256 units transacted in Q4 2025, but fell short of the 6,590 resale flats that changed hands in Q1 2025.

Table 4: HDB Resale Price Index

Ms Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research and Content, PropNex said:

"The flash estimates for Q1 2026 showed the first quarterly decline - albeit a trim one - in HDB resale prices in nearly seven years since Q2 2019. This follows five consecutive quarters of moderation where HDB resale prices either rose at a slower pace or saw no growth. We think it could mark a notable milestone if the HDB resale price index stays in negative territory in Q1 2026 when the final print is released later this month, as we have witnessed an extended period of sustained price increases.

The flattening of the price index suggests that the HDB resale market is adjusting towards a more sustainable phase. Following various rounds of cooling measures and the ramp-up in new flat supply in recent years, the effects of these interventions are becoming evident in the market. This is reflected in the moderation of price growth and more measured demand, with resale volumes stabilising. That said, we anticipate that the market performance will remain differentiated - well-located flats, newer units, and those with desirable attributes could continue to see firm demand and likely to command higher prices.

In Q1 2026, there were at least 412 flats resold for at least $1 million - nearly 18% higher than the 350 such flats transacted in Q4 2025. They comprised 190 units of 4-room flats, 143 units of 5-room flats, 78 executive flats, and a multi-generation flat, based on sales data retrieved on 1 April 2026. Of the 412 units, about 15% (63 flats) have a lease balance of 94 years or more at the point of sale, suggesting that these flats have recently met their 5-year minimum occupation period (MOP). These included resale units at Northshore StraitsView in Punggol, Ang Mo Kio Court, SkyParc @ Dawson, Clementi Crest, as well as Alkaff Courtview and Alkaff Lakeview in the Bidadari estate.

We note that despite the overall moderation in the HDB resale market, several towns and a couple of flat types each posted record high prices during the quarter, based on the sales data. The nine towns that witnessed new all-time high transacted resale flat prices in Q1 2026 were Bukit Batok, Bukit Merah, Clementi, Pasir Ris, Punggol, Queenstown, Sembawang, Sengkang and Tampines (see Table 5 for the respective transactions).

Table 5: New record HDB resale prices in nine towns being set in Q1 2026*

In particular, the 5-room flat in Dawson Road which was resold for $1.7 million in February is not only an all-time high resale flat price for that flat type, but also across all resale flats, based on transactions captured on the government's open data portal. The other segment that achieved a new record price in Q1 2026 was the 2-room flat type, where a unit at SkyParc @ Dawson was resold for $695,000 in February.

In terms of the HDB resale volume (see Chart 2), the number of flats resold in Q1 2026 (till 30 March) has rebounded from Q4 2025 to 6,179 units. However, it is still among the lowest quarterly resale volumes since the second half of 2020. In view of the higher number of flats reaching the MOP this year - at 13,500 units compared with 8,000 units in 2025 - and the stable demand for resale flats, we project that the HDB resale volume may likely hover at around 26,000 to 27,000 units in 2026. Broadly, we are still expecting the HDB resale prices to grow modestly in the entire 2026, potentially ranging from 2% to 3%."

Chart 2: HDB resale flat volume by Quarter from 2019